DON GONYEA, HOST:
One thousand missiles are locked and loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran. That's what President Trump wrote late last night in a post to social media in response to what he says are threats by Iran to assassinate him. This comes after the president's previous announcement that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was, quote, "over," though he also wrote that talks would continue. The apparent end to the agreement was not a total surprise. Tensions escalated this week as the U.S. launched strikes across Iran after accusing Tehran of attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. So is the effort to end the conflict back to square one? Is there some path forward? Those are questions I'll put to our next guest, Ariane Tabatabai. She is the vice president of research, security and defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Welcome to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
ARIANE TABATABAI: Good to be with you, Don.
GONYEA: There was some, let's call it, very cautious hope when the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. was reached three weeks ago. What's your reaction to the news this week that it has seemingly failed?
TABATABAI: Yeah. Well, I was not particularly surprised to hear that the ceasefire had fallen through. I think, you know, there had been tensions brewing for a while now, and even as the memorandum of understanding was being signed, the tensions were continuing. I would have actually been surprised if it hadn't fallen through. This is all very standard in some ways in the relationship between the United States and Iran for the past 47 years and, of course, exacerbated by this conflict. This is a very adversarial relationship. There's a lot of distrust on both sides. You have an Iranian regime that was already loathe to engage with the United States, and that was even before there was a direct conflict between the two countries.
And then, of course, throughout this conflict, much of Iran's senior leadership was killed by the United States. And Israel, you have a regime that is much more emboldened today, much less willing to make concessions and uphold them when it comes to the United States and is holding a grudge. And so on the U.S. side, you have a mercurial president who is also very keen to kind of react to whatever, you know, you see on the Iranian side. So this combo is bound to lead us to where we are as we speak.
GONYEA: President Trump said the U.S. would continue to negotiate with the Iranians, even as he says the ceasefire is done. Give us a sense of how that works in this situation with these two nations, to engage in diplomacy while simultaneously launching missile strikes and other attacks.
TABATABAI: Sure. This, again, is not completely unprecedented. We've seen this in the past as well. And what I anticipate will happen is that we will continue to see negotiations on and off between the two countries against the backdrop of episodic tit-for-tat escalation as we're having right now. Ultimately, I don't think that either the United States or Iran wants to return to March, when we had large-scale operations. And so this, in my mind, is the new steady state for the foreseeable future. I don't expect we will get a real comprehensive final deal anytime soon that will actually resolve the issue once and for all.
GONYEA: Who would you say is the upper hand at this moment? Can you say? And I'm talking about diplomacy.
TABATABAI: Well, you know, I think on the purely military side of things, the United States does have the capabilities, no doubt about it. I think, when it comes to the negotiating table, Iran has a few things going for it. The first is that, in a way, all it had to do was withstand the might of the United States and be able to come out of this conflict still standing, the regime still standing, and that has happened. It has also gotten a few very important concessions from the Trump administration in the memorandum of understanding that we talked about. And whether or not the MOU holds, those concessions would have been made with the president's signature underneath them. And that includes language about - that Iran had wanted for years and had asked various U.S. administrations, and none of them gave it to Iran, like the termination of all U.S. sanctions and like the withdrawal from the region.
The second thing that is - really plays in Iran's favor here is the political calendar on the U.S. side. Iran doesn't really have a political calendar concern right now, but we do, right? We are just four months away from our midterms. The president is already unpopular. This war is unpopular with the public. You have all of the economic effects of it. And so all of this, a nonnegotiable. And I think that the Iranians can really wait all of this out.
GONYEA: Earlier this week, Trump attended the annual NATO summit. The war with Iran hung over that gathering. He complained that European allies have not done enough to support the U.S. How do you characterize Europe's position regarding the war at this moment?
TABATABAI: Yeah, that's right. I mean, this has been a point of tension - by no means the only one - in the trans-Atlantic relationship in recent months. Of course, the issue of Greenland was looming in the relationship just before the war started and is still continuing, as we saw this past week in Ankara, where the president was talking about Greenland. But the president has been consistently fed up with the European allies, as you noted, that they haven't done enough. The challenge, of course, is that he did not consult with the allies. There is all of these added pieces that are challenging and stressing the relationship. And so we are in a position where this is just an added point of tension among the allies.
GONYEA: Ariane Tabatabai is the vice president of research, security and defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Thank you so much for joining us.
TABATABAI: Thanks for having me, Don.
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