The future of President Trump's domestic agenda faces a decisive test in the House on Tuesday, as Republicans look to overcome internal divides over spending and pass a framework for a sweeping multitrillion dollar plan to address defense, energy, immigration and tax policy.
Tuesday's vote is critical for House Republicans, as passage would allow them to unlock a complicated legislative tool known as reconciliation. It's a process that Republicans can use to avoid a filibuster from Democrats in the Senate, but in order to use it they have to first agree on a budget blueprint.
"We're making great progress," House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told reporters. "It's a very complicated negotiation, a lot of numbers, a lot of factors, a lot of different opinions. But we will get there as we always do."
House Republicans are working with a razor-thin majority, and will need virtually the entire conference to vote yes. But even if they can cross that hurdle, it would still amount to just a first step on what promises to be a lengthy and difficult path in passing the party's policy priorities.
Their budget blueprint passed an important test vote earlier Tuesday, but it remained unclear whether enough members would support a final vote expected later this evening.
With the final vote fast approaching, GOP leaders were still working to wrangle support. Johnson and his deputies have spent weeks in painstaking negotiations, but have struggled to balance competing demands from within a fractious GOP caucus.
While fiscal hawks are demanding steep spending cuts, other members have voiced concern about those cuts having to come from Medicaid, the government insurance program that provides health coverage for millions of low-income and disabled Americans.
The Republican-led Senate, impatient with delays on the House side, has already moved their own budget reconciliation plan forward. However, President Trump, after weeks of talks with members, has made clear he'd like to see the House version get to his desk.
The House plan calls for an increase in funding to secure the southern border, a boost for military spending and raising the nation's debt limit by $4 trillion.
The plan also calls for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade. Those cuts include renewing the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of the year, as well as other proposals that the president campaigned on, like no taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security.
In order to get the budget plan just to this stage, Johnson was forced to concede to a demand from some conservative holdouts for $2 trillion in spending cuts. Under the budget framework, the exact details of those cuts will be sorted out later, by individual committees in the House.
The House Energy and Commerce Committee, for example, would be responsible for coming up with $880 billion in savings. But because the committee has say over spending for programs like Medicare and Medicaid, more moderate Republicans are worried about cuts coming from the social safety net.
Given Republicans' thin majority in the House, they can only afford to lose one vote, but entering Tuesday, several members were signaling opposition.
Among the potential holdouts was Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., who in a post on social media Monday wrote, "If the Republican budget passes, the deficit gets worse, not better." Elon Musk responded to the post by saying, "That sounds bad."
Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., said that before she could agree to support the bill, she was hoping for deeper spending cuts to help guard against rising prices.
"I think my party needs to go a little bit on [the] offensive," she said. "If we care about the people."
Another potential holdout, Tennessee Republican Tim Burchett, wasn't sure how he would vote. Burchett, who spoke to Trump by phone earlier Tuesday, declined to share details from the call or give any clues on what he would do.
"I don't know," he told NPR.
If the House cannot pass its budget plan, the Senate bill may end up as Plan B. President Trump has expressed a desire for one "big, beautiful bill," but the Senate plan would seek to pass his main agenda through two bills: one that tackles the border, military spending and energy policy first, followed by a second bill on tax cuts.
Elena Moore contributed reporting.
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