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Israel said it wouldn't let Hamas rule Gaza. The ceasefire is here and Hamas remains

JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:

Since the beginning of the war in Gaza, Israel said it would never again let Hamas rule the territory. Yet now there is a ceasefire, and Hamas remains very much entrenched with no clear alternative for leadership. For a look at what is ahead, we are joined now by NPR's Greg Myre in Tel Aviv. Hi there.

GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Juana.

SUMMERS: So, Greg, just start if you could by describing the Hamas presence in Gaza right now.

MYRE: Well, it's substantial. Members of the Gaza police force, which is run by Hamas, are now on the streets in their uniforms. They had been in civilian clothes during the fighting in an attempt to evade the Israeli military. But we've seen examples like this since the ceasefire took effect Sunday. Hamas militants are also visible. We saw masked Hamas gunmen drive into the center of Gaza City and hand over the three Israeli women hostages. So Hamas is very much reasserting its public presence in Gaza, which it has ruled since 2007.

SUMMERS: Israel killed many Hamas leaders during the fighting, so tell us, who does lead Hamas now?

MYRE: Yeah, no one person is the clear leader. Hamas has generally, historically, had a collective leadership - some inside Gaza, some in exile. Now, Israel killed the Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, in October. His brother, Mohammed Sinwar, is now seen as playing a top role, at least in the armed wing of the group. And Hamas hasn't said publicly who their top leaders in Gaza are, presumably to help protect them from possible attack by Israel, but there certainly seems to be a functioning leadership in Gaza. We should note that it is hard to judge the Hamas level of support. There are certainly critics. We spoke by phone to one man in Gaza, Abu Ali (ph), who simply scoffed when we asked him about Hamas' claim that it considers the war a victory.

ABU ALI: (Speaking Arabic).

MYRE: So he's saying that, "With this war, we went back 50 years. There are no hospitals, no schools, no electricity network. If we get one more victory like this, we'll all be gone."

SUMMERS: Greg, tell us, is Israel proposing an alternative to Hamas?

MYRE: You know, it really hasn't, Juana. And this has been a question since the beginning of the war, and yet Israel has never offered a concrete plan other than saying it won't be Hamas. There's been some vague talk about an international coalition serving in an interim role, but it's never really gone beyond that. Now, the Biden administration raised the possibility of Gaza being run by the Palestinian Authority, which nominally runs Palestinian affairs in the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority - or the PA - says it's willing, but it isn't seen as realistic right now. The PA is weak, unpopular and it's seen as corrupt. Hamas drove the PA out of Gaza in heavy street battles back in 2007, and the PA is led by Mahmoud Abbas, who turns 90 years old this year.

And I spoke about this with Ali Jarbawi (ph). He's a Palestinian political analyst in the West Bank. He says Hamas has been talking about some limited compromises, but it's still the dominant force in Gaza.

ALI JARBAWI: You cannot move forward without Hamas' acceptance of something. They are in control on the ground. They cannot rule on their own, but they can obstruct anybody else from ruling without their acceptance.

SUMMERS: So, Greg, where does that leave us? Is Hamas likely to remain in power just by default?

MYRE: Yeah, that's really the most likely scenario right now. Israel and Hamas have just fought repeatedly over the past two decades, and this was by far the biggest battle yet. And Israel insisted this time would be different - they wouldn't allow Hamas to remain on its border and threaten Israel. Yet right now, there's no realistic alternative to Hamas rule other than perhaps an indefinite Israeli military presence in Gaza.

SUMMERS: That's NPR's Greg Myre. Thank you.

MYRE: Sure thing, Juana. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Greg Myre is a national security correspondent with a focus on the intelligence community, a position that follows his many years as a foreign correspondent covering conflicts around the globe.