A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Within hours of Bashar al-Assad's ouster from Syria, Israel seized control of a buffer zone around the Golan Heights. The Golan Heights region is a highly contested rocky plateau southwest of Syria's capital, Damascus. Israel seized the land in the 1967 Six-Day War. The international community views Israel's control of the Golan Heights as an illegal occupation, but President-elect Trump recognized Israel's sovereignty over the territory during his first term in office. Following the fall of Assad, Israeli airstrikes targeted airports and military sites, including the Syrian Navy. Now, to understand Israel's motives behind its recent actions in Syria, we turn now to Jonathan Panikoff. He's a director and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
So Jonathan, what was Israel trying to achieve with this military incursion and these air raids?
JONATHAN PANIKOFF: Good morning. I think, for Israel, the strikes are really aimed at preventing Syrian weapons from falling into the hands of opposition - and potentially terrorists - who may be hostile to Israel and use the weapons to attack it in the near future.
MARTÍNEZ: So given the timing, do you think it's just about that, or could it be about something else, possibly?
PANIKOFF: I think, given the timing, that's really Israel's key motivation here. The buffer zone that the Israelis have crossed over into and slightly behind really is about the terrorists possibly being on the other side. Israel just doesn't know who is going to emerge in Syria - who's going to emerge right on their border with power, with leadership. Syrian forces loyal to the Assad regime quite literally just left them once Assad fell. And so Israel, I think, in the immediate term, at least, is trying to protect their border. And that's the same with strikes that you're seeing - strikes destroying naval ships from the Assad regime, strikes aimed even at the chemical weapon sites that the Assad regime may have left over.
MARTÍNEZ: So is it believable that once things settle down or there is clarity in the region, that Israel might pull back?
PANIKOFF: I think it's certainly believable. But I think we're literally days into it, and so it's quite unclear whether that means Israel's going to pull back within a couple of days or whether you're talking months. And I think one of the challenges is, obviously, the longer this goes, I think the more likely that Israel stays and says, look, we're just not sure what's going to happen in terms of who emerges. We're not confident, or we don't have confident in the government's ability if there's not a cohesive, centralized government, which is possible in Syria. And then you get into a challenge of, OK, well, if weeks turn into months, and months turn into years, then, obviously, there's a real concern that Israel doesn't leave anytime soon.
MARTÍNEZ: So let's hear about some of that concern. I'd like to play for you a bit of what the U.N. special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, had to say about Israel's moves.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
GEIR PEDERSEN: A very troubling development. We are continuing to see Israeli movements and bombardments into Syrian territory. This needs to stop. This is extremely important.
MARTÍNEZ: OK, so he's calling it very, very troubling. How much water does that argument hold?
PANIKOFF: I think it's certainly understandable that the U.N, which has been in the buffer zone since 1974, would be concerned by this. On the other hand, from the Israeli perspective, I'm sure what's in the back of their mind is the fact that, about 10 years ago, in 2014, al-Qaida attacked forces from the U.N. in that buffer zone, and those U.N. forces fled. I think Israel is in a bit of a no-win position here. Either they move into the buffer zone themselves to ensure terrorists and jihadists don't enter it, or they hope that terrorists don't enter it and, if they do, adhere to U.N. warnings to leave, which is unlikely.
MARTÍNEZ: But the longer they stay, wouldn't that maybe send a signal that they might be there for good?
PANIKOFF: It certainly could. As you mentioned up top, the reality is the Israelis seized the Golan Heights after the '67 war. It was annexed officially in 1981. President Trump recognized that annexation in 2019. But I think it's also important to remember how little territory we're talking about. It's about 155 square miles, right on the border. So this isn't, you know, tens of thousands of square miles. It's a pretty narrow strip that the Israelis are taking at the moment. But, of course, you're right. The longer they're there - if they're there for years, then it's going to get harder and harder to convince the Israelis to leave, most importantly because among the areas in the territory is Mount Hermon, which is the largest point in all of the Eastern Mediterranean. It's at about 9,200 feet, and that's obviously a strategic position the Israelis would like to keep. Hopefully, they'll be encouraged to disengage if there's stability that emerges in Syria in the near future.
MARTÍNEZ: That's Jonathan Panikoff, director and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Jonathan, thanks.
PANIKOFF: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
