SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
It has been a dramatic week in Syria as the country's long-stagnant civil war, which began in the early 2010s, has reignited. Insurgent groups have taken over big cities long controlled by Syrian President Bashar Assad's authoritarian government. And today, they reached the suburbs of the capital city, Damascus, according to the Associated Press.
As we monitor this fast-changing story, we're going to focus in on one aspect of it, the role that Russia has played in keeping Assad's government in power and how that has changed in this latest phase. Russian President Vladimir Putin has, for years, provided critical military support that propped up the Assad regime, but with a war dragging on Ukraine and a struggling economy at home in Russia, the thinking seems to be different. Here to talk more about this is Mark Katz, a professor emeritus at George Mason University who specializes in Russian policy toward the Middle East. Welcome.
MARK KATZ: Great to be here.
DETROW: As I just laid out, it's been such a surprising last few days in the Syrian civil war. It's been going on for more than a decade. Let's look backward, especially to those early years of the war. How critical was Putin's support for Assad and Russia's support for the Syrian government in those early years of this war and since?
KATZ: It was really very important. I mean, certainly from the outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2011 up until mid-2015, Putin was sending arms, but it was Iranians and Hezbollah who were fighting on the ground to defend Assad. But then 2015, Assad seemed to be on the ropes. But Putin's intervention in September of that year really turned things around, saved Assad, helped him gain back territory and didn't take all that many men, and - partly because, you know, the Iranians and Hezbollah had a lot of people there already. But Putin's small intervention was successful compared to the large American interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq that were not. So it was very dramatic.
DETROW: What's the best way to frame the current Russian interest in Syria right now, whether that's the focus of the Russian government or whether that's Russian manpower in Syria or not in Syria?
KATZ: I think the relationship with Syria is very important because, you know, at the time of the Arab Spring, Assad was his last Arab ally, and if he had fallen, there wouldn't have been much room for Russian influence in the Middle East. But the fact that not only did Putin save Assad, but oddly enough, even Arab governments who didn't like Assad were impressed by Putin having supported him so strongly compared to what they claimed was a lack of American support for its allies.
And so I think that, you know, Putin's position in Syria has helped him, you know, build relations with a lot of countries - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates in particular - and they have, you know, very important relations with these. But now if Assad is going to fall, then the question arises is, well, just how useful an ally is Putin after all?
DETROW: Right. And has there been any Russian support in this particular dire moment for the Assad government? Or is it fair to say that Russia is focused on Ukraine and just is not able to contribute in the same way?
KATZ: Russia's mainly focused on Ukraine, and certainly the images and the reporting seems to be that the Russians are moving out. They've moved their naval vessels out of the port, Tartus (ph). They seem to be pulling back their assets to the - you know, both the air base and the naval base. They're not moving people in. They seem to be moving people away from the battle.
DETROW: So what does that mean for the Assad government, first and foremost? Do you think that, if the support's just not there, do you think that makes the coming weeks that much more precarious?
KATZ: It makes the coming days that much more precarious, maybe the coming hours. Yeah, I think that certainly there have been, you know, some complaints by Russians that Assad has not been willing to fight, that al-Assad's troops have not been willing to fight. So the implication is, how can Russia defend people who aren't willing to defend themselves? It just seems that the Russians seem to understand that the situation is pretty dire. And they're just not in a position to help. As we've also seen, the Iranians seem to be moving out as well, which I think is really surprising because, if anything, the relationship with Syria is even more important to them than to Russia, although it's obviously debatable.
DETROW: If the Assad government falls, how much does that weaken Russia in the Middle East?
KATZ: Well, it's certainly - it's going to hurt Russia. Now, of course, I mean, they have relations with places that do important things to them. There's cooperation with the Saudis on oil, lots of economic cooperation with the UAE. Certainly, the Egyptians will probably still work with them. But it means that Putin is not as powerful. And I think that for a lot of countries who really accepted the narrative that the Americans are not reliable but Putin is, that this has now been - going to be undermined tremendously.
DETROW: I want to ask about one other factor here, and like you said, this might be a matter of days in terms of the immediate change in fortunes in Syria. But looking forward, you have Donald Trump coming back into office in the United States when he was president. Trump made it very clear that he was incredibly skeptical of American intervention in Syria. What do you see - how do you see a second Trump administration changing the dynamics in Syria?
KATZ: If Assad falls before Trump comes to power, I think that Trump, when he comes in, would be very likely to pull the remaining 900-odd U.S. soldiers out of Syria. That - leave Syria to the Syrians. In other words, if it's not going to be under the control of an external great power, then that's sort of what America was trying to prevent, although we were there to fight ISIS. But I think it will be very hard for the U.S., no matter who is president, to maintain its presence, and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump in particular withdraws it.
DETROW: That is Mark Katz, professor emeritus at George Mason University. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk us through all of this.
KATZ: Thank you.
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