ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:
Could Israel's 60-day ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon be replicated in Gaza? Yesterday, I asked National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan about that.
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JAKE SULLIVAN: I cannot predict if we will be able to achieve a Gaza ceasefire before President Biden leaves office. I can tell you we're going to make every effort to do so.
SCHMITZ: Let's bring in Aaron David Miller. He's an author and diplomat, now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. That's a private nonprofit that promotes international cooperation and foreign engagement by the U.S. He's also written five books, including "The Much Too Promised Land: America's Elusive Search For Arab-Israeli Peace." Good morning, Aaron, and happy Thanksgiving.
AARON DAVID MILLER: Morning, Rob. Same to you and thanks for having me.
SCHMITZ: So we just heard Jake Sullivan there hoping that Biden might be able to help broker a Gaza ceasefire before he leaves office. How realistic is that prospect in your mind?
MILLER: You know, I think for the outgoing Biden administration, time is an adversary, not an ally. I would hope for the sake of the long-suffering Palestinians in Gaza and the hostages and their families that it might be possible to build on the momentum of what happened in Lebanon, but I think it's going to be a very, very heavy lift basically for two reasons. Hamas' only card left is hostages. And for hostages, they're going to want a cessation of the war, return of displaced people to their homes and an asymmetrical number of Palestinian prisoners to be released.
This Israeli government cannot under these circumstances, accept those demands and requirements or anything close. Netanyahu was able to do the Lebanon deal because there was no danger. The vote in the cabinet was 10-to-1. There was no danger that the ceasefire agreement would crater the coalition. So I think the sun and the moon and the stars just aren't aligned right now for a comprehensive deal.
SCHMITZ: So you mentioned the hostages. You know, Hamas has been decimated. Many of its leading figures have been killed. Going to Hamas here, what is, do you think, Hamas' end goal here? And what role does Iran play?
MILLER: You know, I'm not sure Yahya Sinwar, the putative leader and military leader, the architect of the October 7 terror surge, had a real plan. I think he hoped for some sort of millennial solution in which peoples of the Middle East, the axis of resistance, the Iranians, the Houthis, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, would somehow rise up and create some sort of regional conflict. If he didn't anticipate the Israeli response, the ferocity of it all, I think he should've. He's spent 20 years in Israeli prison, speaks fluent Hebrew. I'm not sure he had an end goal, frankly.
Right now, as you pointed out, Rob, the leadership has been decimated. Yahya Sinwar's brother, Mohammed, perhaps, and a few brigade commanders are making the decisions. I think Hamas is going to survive and wants to survive as an insurgency. It can't govern Gaza any longer. But it will remain a force that will be able, through intimidation and coaptation, to influence whatever political arrangements are made there, and none at present look promising.
SCHMITZ: So, Aaron, you mentioned the hostages who remain in Gaza. The hostage families have publicly criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu for not doing enough to get their loved ones back. Could the U.S. and Israel try to secure a release of the hostages without a broader ceasefire?
MILLER: I mean, I think it's possible, Rob. But the initial proposal called for a three-phase deal lasting 45 days, limited exchange of hostages - the women, the elderly and the infirm - in exchange for a six-week deal. Depending on Mr. Netanyahu's flexibility, which isn't all that great, and Hamas' desperation, it's possible to consider that you could get through a Phase 1 accord. But even that's going to be very, very tough to do under these circumstances.
SCHMITZ: That's Aaron David Miller. He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Aaron, thanks for your time.
MILLER: Thanks for having me, Rob. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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