AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Last week, Russia launched an experimental, medium-range ballistic missile attack on a Ukrainian military facility.
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PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).
RASCOE: In a televised address, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the attack was in response to recent Ukrainian long-range strikes with Western weapons on Russian soil, and he threatened further escalation. Joining us to talk about these developments and where they could lead next is NPR's Charles Maynes in Moscow. Welcome to the program.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Morning.
RASCOE: So let's start with the attack itself. How did this crisis come about?
MAYNES: Well, it's been a busy week. You know, first, we had Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use these long-range American weapons to fire deep into Russia, which Ukraine did the next day, striking a military installation in western Bryansk region with these ATACMS. These are ballistic missiles. Next, Ukraine fired British Storm Shadow missiles at a Russian military base in the Kursk region, reportedly killing some servicemen. Russia then announced it had formally revised its nuclear doctrine, effectively lowering the threshold for its use of nuclear weapons. And then this Russian attack on a military facility in Ukraine's Dnipro region. You know, Putin said Russia had successfully tested a new, experimental, hypersonic intermediate-range missile in a direct response to aggressive Western actions against Russia.
RASCOE: This new Russian weapon - what do we know about it?
MAYNES: Well, Putin says the weapon is called Oreshnik. This is the Russian word for hazel or hazelnut, the name reflecting how the weapon's multiple warheads separate and fall like nuts from a tree, albeit on enemy targets. Oreshnik carried a conventional payload in Ukraine, but left unspoken, this is a nuclear-capable weapon. Moreover, Putin insisted Oreshnik was essentially invincible, traveling so fast - it's 10 times the speed of sound - that no Western air defenses could stop it, a point he made again as he congratulated top brass on Friday.
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PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: "Nobody in the world has a weapon like this," says Putin in addressing his generals. "Yes," he adds that, "other leading countries may develop it tomorrow or in a year or two, but we have it today."
RASCOE: How concerned should we and Ukrainians be about this new weapon?
MAYNES: Well, the actual efficacy of this weapon is unclear, but Russia is certainly claiming it as a major success. Putin says they'll continue to produce and test it, including in combat conditions. He also said Russia reserved the right - in fact, was entitled - to carry out additional strikes against Western military installations that he argued were helping Ukraine carry out these attacks on Russian soil. As to how concerned we should be, Dmitry Stefanovich of the Center for International Security at the Primakov Institute here in Moscow, argues it's a warning to be taken seriously.
DMITRY STEFANOVICH: Because Oreshnik is both a sign of possible horizontal escalation, like bringing the fight to other regions, but also vertical escalation, so using more and more powerful weapons in Ukraine - and both options are on the table.
MAYNES: So there's kind of a shock-and-awe aspect of all of this, Russia clearly hoping the technical supremacy of this Oreshnik will serve as a deterrent in ways that, you know, frankly, haven't worked out in the past.
RASCOE: And what do you mean by that?
MAYNES: Well, you know, Putin has actually repeatedly rattled the nuclear saber throughout this war and has failed really to get Biden to pull back his military support for Ukraine. But what it has done is made Biden very cautious about the kind of weapons he's provided to Kyiv, at least until now.
RASCOE: Right, because all of this is happening just two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, and he's vowing to negotiate an end to the war. So how might that impact this situation?
MAYNES: Well, there's a widespread view in Moscow that Biden is providing these more sophisticated weapons to Ukraine now to undermine Trump's ability to negotiate later, just to make it more difficult to force Ukraine to settle the war on Russia's terms, as candidate Trump and some of his team have suggested he might do. The irony here is that it was Trump who exited a cornerstone nuclear arms agreement - the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, Treaty - with Russia during his first term in office. And the collapse of the INF Treaty then had Russia racing to develop new weapons like Oreshnik. It now appears Trump will have to deal with the consequences.
RASCOE: That's NPR's Charles Maynes in Moscow. Thank you so much.
MAYNES: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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