AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
European leaders are asking what Donald Trump's second term might mean for the NATO alliance and American support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia. The president-elect has frequently criticized NATO. Earlier this year, he said he would encourage Russia to, quote, "do whatever the hell they want" to member states who didn't meet their military spending requirements. Those types of comments and Trump's unpredictability could force Europe into a reckoning with its relationship with the U.S.
Joining us now is Heather Conley, a senior adviser at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a nonpartisan public policy think tank. She's also a former deputy assistant secretary of state in the George W. Bush administration. Welcome to the program.
HEATHER CONLEY: Ayesha, it's great to be with you. Thank you.
RASCOE: So let's start with the war in Ukraine. Do you believe that Donald Trump will end American military support in Ukraine? And what would be the consequences?
CONLEY: Well, I certainly hope that is not the case. As Mr. Trump has said, he wants to be able to end the war quickly. In order to get both parties to the negotiating table - Russia and Ukraine - the United States and our European allies need to continue to support Ukraine so that they can be in the best position possible because it's really about stabilizing Euro-Atlantic security, but it's also now increasingly about Iran and North Korea and even China. So there are global implications to this. It's not simply about Ukraine.
RASCOE: What would it mean for the NATO alliance if Donald Trump were to end or significantly cut back on U.S. military support for Ukraine?
CONLEY: So Europe would continue to provide support. It just would be insufficient. And so what would likely happen if Ukraine military lines begin to falter and collapse and Russia would be able to advance, you would then be begin to see our NATO allies, particularly on the eastern flank - the Baltic states, Poland, even Finland and Sweden - probably ask for more assistance and support. They'd have to provide additional military capabilities and forces to make themselves feel more secure and to deter potential Russian troop advances closest to their border.
RASCOE: Let's talk about the argument that NATO countries are supposed to spend on defense 2% of their GDP. A lot of the countries have not met that target. That is what Trump often complains about. Why haven't European nations spent more on defense? And are they - you know, have they stepped up?
CONLEY: You know, it's not just Mr. Trump that's been complaining about a lack of European defense spending. This has been going on for decades. Dwight Eisenhower was complaining that our European allies were not paying enough. And he is right. Why have they underspent? Well, they have depended on the United States for sure, but they haven't felt threatened. But I think today, what Russia is doing, that's beginning to change. The question is the timelines. We don't have another 10 years to wait and to grow incrementally, because they have to supply the Ukrainian military, in addition to making sure their stockpiles, which they emptied to support Ukraine - as we've done, as well - they have to be replenished immediately. So NATO members really have to spend more and move as quickly as possible.
RASCOE: Well, do you think it's a real possibility that Trump could withdraw the U.S. from NATO?
CONLEY: Well, I certainly hope that's not the case. I mean, there's a way to withdraw from NATO, according to the NATO treaty. You have to give a notice, and it takes a year. And Congress actually passed that you'd have to get Senate approval to withdraw from the NATO treaty, in some way shoring up that potential, should a future president try to withdraw the United States from NATO. But really, it's about credibility. And Mr. Trump - with a sentence or with actions - withdrawing U.S. forces from Europe or withholding material support should Russia try to destabilize a NATO member, that, in many ways is really ending the credibility of NATO. It rests on the perception that those 32 countries will be supportive if one is attacked. And I always like to remind Americans, the only time in NATO's history that this special article has been used was to protect the United States after 9/11.
RASCOE: That's Heather Conley from the German Marshall Fund. Thank you so much for joining us.
CONLEY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
