ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:
The Arctic is heating up, both because of climate change and tricky global politics. That's partly why the U.S. appointed its first ambassador-at-large to oversee Arctic affairs. Mike Sfraga was sworn into the role earlier this month, and he's got big issues to tackle - a warming planet, oil and competitors like Russia and China who are trying to build their presence in the region. To learn more about how the U.S. plans to tackle these issues, we've called Ambassador Sfraga. Welcome.
MIKE SFRAGA: Thank you, Rob. Thanks for having me.
SCHMITZ: Well, thanks for being here. Ambassador Sfraga, climate change is literally shaping the future of the Arctic Ocean and creating new potential shipping lanes. You know, what are the implications of this on geopolitics?
SFRAGA: So unfortunately, there's a multiplier effect happening here. The Arctic Ocean sea ice has shrunk about 50%. The thickness is about 50% less, and the overall volume is about 75% less. So, you know, that's dramatic in and of itself. And then there's permafrost thaw throughout the Arctic. Wildfires have increased. It is a significant change happening, and as you noted rightly, it's literally changing the contours of the Arctic, politically, economically, culturally, socially, and in fact, it's changing the security contours as well.
SCHMITZ: Yeah, I mean, let's talk about one of the largest countries that borders the Arctic - Russia. It has the longest border on the Arctic, and we know that Russia has been building their military presence along that border. What should the U.S. do to challenge this in any way? I mean, what are some of the implications of how Russia is treating this newly sort of defined ocean?
SFRAGA: Yeah. Well, we'd have to note that the Russians have been building, modernizing, expanding their military assets along the Arctic coastline of their country for a very long time. This is not just the last few years. We're taking duly noted changes because of the Ukraine war, but this has been going on for quite some time, the expansion of existing bases along their northern coast, the creation of new bases along the northern coast. The response from the United States and our allies and partners has been to try to meet presence with presence. So what we have done is to ensure that the state of Alaska is strategically set to try to meet deterrence with presence, to counter the expansion of Russia's military on their side of the Arctic.
SCHMITZ: You mentioned the map. You know, I'm looking at a map of the Arctic Ocean right now. You know, it's bordered by Russia, Canada. I see Greenland, Scandinavian countries. One country I am not seeing along its border is China, yet China has very big ambitions in the Arctic. What does China want from the Arctic?
SFRAGA: China wants a number of things. I think they want to try to normalize their presence in the Arctic to influence - try to influence Arctic governance, and Arctic governance is the responsibility of the Arctic nations. I believe they are taking advantage of the current war that Russia is imposing on Ukraine to buy cheaper oil and gas. They're looking for economic leverage. They're looking for resources. They're looking for influence. They're looking for domain awareness, understanding the Arctic environment. They're looking to have a foothold. So, you know, in a lot of ways, the Arctic now is part of the more global geopolitics.
SCHMITZ: You mentioned China's close relationship with Russia. I'm curious - are there any signs that China has ambitions to build a potential military base along the Arctic?
SFRAGA: I don't know if they have plans to do so. I think that would be a bad idea. But when you look at what they've done in other parts of the world, we have to at least think about that. We are watching closely what they are doing in the Arctic, and that could include trying to build some kind of permanent base somewhere in the Arctic with the OK of the Russian Federation.
SCHMITZ: You know, when we talk about the Arctic, you know, I think most people think of just a barren, frozen, you know, ice land. What are we looking at when we look at the future of the Arctic? I mean, when we talk about business, when we talk about shipping lanes, things like that, what - you know, 10, 20 years ahead, what is it going to look like?
SFRAGA: The physical environment will look very different, very different. If you remove the sea ice away from the coastlines, you removed a protective layer that has been there for eons for those communities. So storms that would have been relatively mild storms now are significant storms hitting these communities. Permafrost thaw continues to occur. Homes - homes - were literally falling into the ocean. Typhoon Merbok that began off the coast of Japan two years ago, moved north through the North Pacific to Alaska and hit the entire Western coast of the state of Alaska. It was about 1,000 miles long. That's like New York to Miami, and it...
SCHMITZ: Wow.
SFRAGA: ...Devastated communities at a time right before what we call is freeze up - small communities, no road access. So you can't think about the future business, the future of communities without thinking about the dramatic impact climate change has had and will continue to have.
SCHMITZ: The Arctic is one of the world's most fragile ecosystems. How do we ensure the future protection of this environment as we talk about how we humans can best use it?
SFRAGA: It's a great question. I'll start with the absolute need for more research. We still have a significant deficit in our observation networks. We're still grasping with trying to figure out the change, the rate of change, how those implications will play out into the future. So we have to adapt. We have to mitigate and understand that what we plan for, we have to plan for not just for the next five or 10 years - whether it's a road or whether it's a community or whether it's a - you know, it's a vision and mission and aspiration.
I think we have to plan now for 50 years, knowing full well that the climate change that we are - currently experience is built into the global system. Even if we stop burning fossil fuels tomorrow, this climate will continue to change, which means our weather will change. So our planning must be long term, adaptation and mitigation, but really the foundation of understanding and then planning for the future has got to come with a robust investment in Arctic research.
SCHMITZ: That's Mike Sfraga, U.S. ambassador-at-large for Arctic affairs. Ambassador, thanks for your time.
SFRAGA: Thank you very much.
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