ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
Two groups have been attacking Israel for months - Hezbollah from Lebanon and Hamas from Gaza. Well, within the last day, leaders of both organizations were killed in apparent assassinations. Here's one scene. In Tehran, a new reformist president took office yesterday, and Iranian lawmakers in the conservative Parliament broke into chants of, death to America, death to Israel.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED CROWD: (Chanting in Arabic).
SHAPIRO: Within a few hours, one of the foreign guests at that ceremony would himself be dead, the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh. Hamas and Iran blame Israel. Just hours earlier, Israel said it killed a high-level commander of Hezbollah in Beirut, Lebanon. Now, Iran backs both Hamas and Hezbollah. And now many groups are vowing revenge. To explain what this means for the region, two of our correspondents in the Middle East are with us. Jane Arraf is in Beirut, and Hadeel Al-Shalchi is in Tel Aviv. Good to have you both here.
HADEEL AL-SHALCHI, BYLINE: Hello.
JANE ARRAF, BYLINE: Thank you, Ari.
SHAPIRO: Jane, why are Hamas and Iran blaming Israel for Haniyeh's assassination, and what are they threatening to do in response?
ARRAF: Well, Ari, Israel hasn't claimed responsibility, but it doesn't always when it comes to attacks on Iran. Other countries believe Israel was responsible because honestly, there are really no other countries that would have both the means and the motive to carry out a killing like this. Iran says it will provide details when it has them, but those released so far point to a particularly brazen attack. The Hamas official, Ismail Haniyeh, was a guest of the Iranian regime there to attend the president's inauguration and under their protection. Haniyeh was killed just a few hours after Israel assassinated the second most senior Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr in Beirut. Iran has made clear that it doesn't want to be drawn into a war directly with Israel. But it said after Haniyeh's killing, revenge is our duty.
SHAPIRO: Hadeel, you're in Tel Aviv right now. How is Israel responding to these threats?
AL-SHALCHI: So actually, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a speech on Israeli television today. And he didn't directly mention the killing of Haniyeh, but he did, quote, say, "intense days are ahead of us." And this is in line with what Jane just mentioned. You know, Israel doesn't normally comment when it comes to attacks on Iran. Otherwise, we really just haven't heard anything official. You know, when my colleague Daniel Estrin here in Tel Aviv asked the Israeli military for a statement, they flat-out said, no comment. And that's what it's been like, like, all day. One thing we do know is that the Israeli foreign minister, Israel Katz, sent a letter to some foreign ministers around the world saying that Israel is not interested in an all-out war, but the only way to prevent a war is to have a full cessation of hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border.
SHAPIRO: Jane, there's so much going on here. I mean, for one thing, it sounds like everybody is saying they don't want war even as they inch closer to war. What are the potential consequences here?
ARRAF: Oh, gosh, so many. And that's an indication of how closely regional politics and security are interconnected. In Iran, this dashes hopes that the new president would be able to carry out reforms, including better relations with the West and more freedoms in Iran. And more immediately, even if Iran doesn't retaliate directly, it could very well do it through its powerful proxy groups in the region. Here in Lebanon, Hezbollah will have to respond in a major way to the Israeli attack in Beirut. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will give a speech during Shukr's funeral tomorrow. And Lebanon is terrified that this could all drag it into a war that would destroy it. And then there are the Gaza cease-fire negotiations. So really, that's just the shortlist.
SHAPIRO: And, Hadeel, to those cease-fire negotiations, is that a casualty of this? Do these apparent assassinations mean a cease-fire is off the table?
AL-SHALCHI: I mean, Haniyeh's killing is kind of leaving everyone a little nervous about the fate of the talks. We're sort of all waiting to see what Hamas decides to do. You know, maybe they'll possibly halt the talks for a time while they regroup. So Haniyeh was actually one of the players in the talks and tried to push for a cease-fire. But he didn't actually have that much influence even though, you know, he was technically Hamas' political chief. The person really calling the shots has always been Hamas' Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar.
Today, Hamas' deputy chairman in Gaza, Khalil al-Hayya, said that Hamas' goals in the negotiations were unchanged, but he blamed Netanyahu for obstructing the deal. And, you know, one group of people who's really watching this very closely is the families of the hostages. You know, today they said that, sure, while military operations have achieved gains, they want to see Netanyahu accept Biden's deal, you know, so they could see their loved ones come back home.
SHAPIRO: I know Israel has said that it is prepared for a wider war. Jane are Iran and its proxies ready for something like that if that's the way this goes?
ARRAF: Oh, Ari, everyone says they're ready for war, even though they also say they don't want it. Hezbollah and Lebanon has gone out of its way to show Israel that it's a much, much stronger force than Hezbollah of previous wars, much better armed and able to strike Israeli cities. Iran has made it clear that it supports Hamas in Gaza but also doesn't want to go to war for them. And Iranian proxies in Iraq have pretty much gotten what they want, an agreement in the making that will end the U.S.-led multinational military force in Iraq. So the worry is really that this cycle of retaliation could spiral out of control.
SHAPIRO: And on so many different fronts. But just to zoom into the war in Gaza, to end, Hadeel, this war has been going on for almost 10 months already and claimed more than 39,000 Palestinian lives, according to Gaza health officials. How might the death of Haniyeh affect life in Gaza and that war?
AL-SHALCHI: Really, it just doesn't look like it's going to calm down there. You know, while everyone's attention has been on Lebanon and Iran in the past couple of days, Israeli military airstrikes and ground raids are still going on in Gaza. Just today, health officials said that more than 50 people have been killed in Israeli military attacks. And the United Nations said that tens of thousands of Palestinians are experiencing new waves of displacement because of Israeli military evacuation orders. And today, the Qatari-based news channel Al Jazeera reported that two of its well-known journalists were killed in a strike while reporting in Haniyeh's former Gazan neighborhood. But the Israeli military hasn't commented on those deaths yet.
SHAPIRO: That's NPR's Hadeel Al-Shalchi in Tel Aviv and Jane Arraf in Beirut. Thank you both.
ARRAF: Thank you, Ari.
AL-SHALCHI: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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